Omicron sub-variant BA.5 established itself as the dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2 in New Brunswick within five weeks of its first appearance and now fuels the current wave of COVID19 in the province.
What is BA.5 and what does its pressence mean to New Brunswick?
As the world abandons all attempts to mitigate transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the rate at which new mutations (and subsequently new variants) occur increases.
BA.5 is the latest "variant of concern" (VOC). A variant becomes a VOC when its mutations have a significant clinical or public health impact affecting one or more of the following:
transmissibility
virulence
vaccine effectiveness
diagnostic testing
Specifically, BA.5 contains mutations which dramatically increase its ability to evade immunity from previous infection, vaccination or both.
This combined with an apparent increase in transmissibility (biostatisticians are still working on confirming this) has allowed BA.5 to spread broadly and quickly become the dominant variant in the province.
As of the most recent data from the New Brunswick Government, in a matter of weeks, BA.5 now accounts for 57% of all sequenced cases.
New Brunswick is currently experiencing an increase in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
In typical fashion, instead of informing its citizens of the fact that their individual risk is increasing, Chief Medical Officer of Health Jennifer Russell debates semantics so as to favour minimizing language.
The facts of the matter are plain.
BA.5 is fuelling the now established sixth wave in New Brunswick.
BA.5's immune evasion capabilities mean it's easier for both previously infected and vaccinated individuals to contract it.
As we've seen with Omicron in general, milder symptoms of a much more transmissible variant do not translate to a lower impact to the people of New Brunswick.
"Mild" Omicron is responsible for 72% of all Covid deaths in New Brunswick occurring in just the last 27% of the pandemic.
This wave will be the first we've experienced with no non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in place and it is occurring at a point when more than half the province has been denied booster vaccinations.
... and still, PH continues its Vaccines-Only recommendations.
Now more than ever we need collective, communal effort to minimize transmission.
Wear a well-fitting mask.
Test frequently.
Stay home if you are sick.
Ventilate and filter indoor air.
We can choose to not wilfully underestimate our collective precarity in this wave.
We can choose to not carry water for a government who has abdicated all responsibility for the health and wellbeing of its citizens.
We can help each other.
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