At this point in the pandemic we shouldn't have to have this conversation.
Nevertheless, New Brunswick Health Minister Dorothy Shephard stated April 13 that schools had higher transmission rates with masking protections than they do now without masking, because… vaccinations.
What do we know?
The exact quotes from Shephard:
"We saw in February that high school cases were lower than K-8 because we didn't see the uptake of vaccination in our lower age group."
"I think the numbers show us that in February we had, with masking, a higher rate of spread in our lower age groups."
Some facts:
Vaccination uptake in age 12-17s was higher in February because this cohort had access to vaccinations for months longer than the 5-11 group. But Shephard seems to imply a higher rate in masked, low vaccinated than in unmasked, high vaccinated.
One thing is for certain, all the publicly available numbers do show higher transmission rates in February than today, because the reporting on rates of spread in schools was discontinued on March 4, before mask protections were removed.
We've been deprived of student case data since that time. We do however know that covid transmission has dramatically increased since mask protections were removed, as seen in the absenteeism data reported by the Telegraph Journal and CBC, the latter of which described:
Classes in some New Brunswick schools have needed to be combined, with students having to be "corralled" into gyms and cafeterias.
In others, students have had to be moved to other classrooms just so they can be under the supervision of an adult for the day.
Those are some of the situations that have arisen in recent weeks as a result of a high rate of teachers calling in sick.
We also know that vaccination rates in the group mentioned by Shephard (and all other groups) has not appreciably changed since before mask protections were removed.
We see a sharp uptake once the 5-11 cohort became eligible to receive vaccinations followed by a flattening off before the March 14 policy change.
(source)
If we look closely at the rate of vaccination change from the point when masks were removed until now, we can see... negligible difference.
So in the face of unprecedented reported absences and illness in our schools we receive another puzzling statement. We have Health Minister Shepard comparing vaccination rates in two age cohorts at one point in time (February), and somehow conflating that with mask policy which changed a month later.
What exactly does Shephard think is happening?
Does she believe we have less transmission in 5-11 today (we do not)?
If so, does she believe this is due to vaccination increasing (it hasn't)?
Is she implying "with masking" impacted transmission rates (it did but not how she suggests)?
We're given another official word salad which, upon on a cursory glance, implies that vaccinations have increased and removing masks has been a causal factor for the decreased transmission we see today.
Literally none of those things are true.
Vaccinations have stalled, likely due to bungled PH communication.
If Covid is mild in kids, why vaccinate?
If kids don't need masks, why vaccinate?
If we're "post pandemic" and "living with covid," why vaccinate?
Vaccination is not a standalone strategy to prevent transmission.
This is why you vaccinate:
Masking is a strategy to prevent transmission.
This is why you mask:
(source)