The Shadow of BA.4
What we know about the latest variant to be detected in New Brunswick- by Jessica Bleasdale
We did it New Brunswick!!! We are number one in Canada!! For what, you ask? For the highest prevalence of the Omicron BA.4 variant of any province in Canada. Looking to the United States, only New York and California have us beat. This does not bode well for New Brunswick and its Vaccines-Only policy. Here is the most recent and relevant information on the BA.4 variant and what it may mean for our province.
Prevalence of Long Covid
In a May 6, 2022 CBC article, Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Tam stated up-to-date research indicates as high as fifty percent of people infected with the Covid-19 virus would go on to have symptoms of long COVID.
Early reports from the World Health Organization showed 10 to 20 per cent of people infected with the virus would go on to have symptoms of long COVID. Tam said more up-to-date research indicates that figure could actually be as high as 50 per cent.
A recent CDC report found that 1 in 5 adults 18-64 and 1 in 4 adults 65+ who'd had Covid experienced post Covid symptoms or developed new conditions likely related to having had Covid. Relative risks for a variety of conditions such as pulmonary embolism and diabetes increased in patients who'd had Covid.
Every Covid infection or re-infection brings risks. To avoid long Covid, the first step is avoiding Covid infection.
Dr. Pat Soon Shiong elegantly describes BA.4 (referred to in this video as ‘delta-cron’) and its persistence in organs months and months after infection. In light of the long term damage done, the solution is to prevent infection through simple measures such as masking.
Covid is airborne. Wearing a well-fitting, multi-layer mask such as a respirator for the full duration of time you share indoor air with people outside your household is an effective way to reduce Covid transmissions. Staying home when sick, avoiding crowded places, reducing the length of your exposure indoors, choosing outdoor activities and gatherings, improving indoor ventilation and making use of portable filtration also have capacity to reduce transmissions.
Unfortunately, due to the immune escape capabilities of these variants, the lack of protections in NB, and the lack of timely and complete data regarding the Covid situation in NB, activities that seemed safe last summer may be riskier this summer.
This is why Covid case numbers matter, and why Public Health’s continued lack of transparency is harming New Brunswickers. Left unmitigated, there will be a surge of Long Covid as BA.4 continues to proliferate in the province.
Vaccination and Long Covid
In a recent study (May 25, 2022) incorporating more than 13 million people, Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly investigates the prevalence of Long COVID after breakthrough infection (infection in vaccinated individuals).
The findings show that vaccination only partially reduces the risk of death and post-acute sequelae, suggesting that reliance on it as a sole mitigation strategy may not most optimally reduce the risk of the long-term health consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our results emphasize the need for continued optimization of primary prevention strategies of BTIs and will inform post-acute care approaches for people with BTI.
In discussing the study, Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly states:
Long Covid after breakthrough infection (vaccinated people who subsequently got SARS-CoV-2 infection) is indistinguishable…from Long Covid in unvaccinated people.
One conclusion of the study is that vaccines reduce Long Covid by only 15%.
This fact is important because according to studies, BA.4 is seemingly more contagious and more pathogenic (causing more severe disease) than BA.2. This is problematic given unfettered spread of this sub variant in New Brunswick with more cases of it here than anywhere else in Canada.
The immune evasion of BA.4 is 4.2-fold more resistant to antibodies than even the BA.2.12.1 variant presently ripping through the USA (which we also have in New Brunswick). Vaccine neutralization of BA.4 has been shown to have dropped 12-fold. The particular monoclonal antibody treatment mentioned as effective against Omicron variants (bebtelovimab) although made in BC is not available for use in Canada.
BA.4 and New Brunswick
The spectre of Long Covid in NB is concerning given that premier Blaine Higgs and Chief Medical Officer of Health Jennifer Russell have chosen a Vaccines-Only policy and BA.4 is shown to be more contagious and more prone to breakthrough and re-infections. Current vaccination rates have stalled with overall booster rate of only 52%, kids 5-11 vaccination rate of only 40%, and youth 12-19 booster rate a mere 20%.
None of what I mention above regarding BA.4, breakthroughs, reinfections and poor protection of vaccines against Long Covid was mentioned by New Brunswick’s acting Chief Medical Officer of Health Yves Leger during recent interviews, nor were questions asked by most of New Brunswick media; the exception being Andrew Waugh’s BA.4 article with new Health Department spokesperson Michelle Guenard.
In fact, it was only from Waugh’s article that New Brunswick even found out about BA.4’s presence in the province, as Public Health had no intention of informing us. Guenard even gave incorrect data on the quantity of BA.4 cases in New Brunswick, a fact which had to be pointed out by New Brunswick citizens with access to public data.
If New Brunswick Public Health doesn’t start putting measures in place to mitigate spread of BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.12.1 as soon as possible, we will see a rough autumn, with the return to school, and possibly a rough summer if hot temperatures lead people to interior air conditioned spaces. Higher transmission will occur resulting in more Long Covid for New Brunswickers.
One further thing to mention is Higgs’ and Russell’s hopium for Paxlovid versus implementation of the precautionary principle. This is problematic given the real world data of Paxlovid rebounds and side effects; yet another piece of information not articulated by Public Health underscoring the importance of preventing Covid transmission. Since New Brunswick Public Health is built on a Vaccines-Only plan bolstered by anti-virals (despite increased breakthrough infections and reinfections with latest variants (BA.4) and increase in Long Covid even for the vaccinated), when will they inform New Brunswick about Paxlovid rebounds?
Can we also take a moment to talk about the Rt value of BA.4 which has been shown to have growth advantages over previous sub-variants of Omicron? Imagine that level of transmissibility with zero protection measures, such as the situation in New Brunswick right now. Imagine what that means for Long Covid when experts state its prevalence is somewhere between 20 percent and 50 percent of infected individuals.
New Brunswick may not have to imagine.
There are many things we can do to reduce Covid transmissions, and the more people are aware of how Covid spreads and the really effective things we can do to reduce transmissions (such as gathering outdoors and wearing respirators), we can still meet our goals to have a happy, fulfilling, and safe summer if we build in strategies to reduce transmissions from the moment we start planning work, leisure, travel, education, and family activities.
If you would like to receive PoPNB posts in your email, please subscribe below. If you found this post helpful, please share it with your community.